NASCAR at Bristol odds, picks 2019: Model says Kurt Busch surprises at Food City 500

The 2019 Food City 500 takes place on Sunday at legendary Bristol Motor Speedway. The green flag drops at 2 p.m. ET, and every corner counts as a result of tight, steeply-banked trail where death is at a premium. Last week, Denny Hamlin grabbed his next success of the 2019 Monster Energy NASCAR Cup Series season at Texas Motor Speedway. He has a win at Bristol under his belt and can be listed at 14-1 to triumph in the most current 2019 Food City 500 odds. However, there are six drivers using 2019 NASCAR at Bristol odds better than Hamlin, as Kyle Busch (5-2) is the favorite followed by Kyle Larson (7-1), Brad Keselowski (8-1), Joey Logano (8-1), Ryan Blaney (12-1) and Kevin Harvick (12-1). So before you create your 2019 Food City 500 picks, visit the NASCAR in Bristol predictions from the proven computer version at SportsLine.

Produced by DFS expert and SportsLine predictive data engineer Mike McClure, this proprietary NASCAR prediction computer model simulates every race 10,000 times, taking factors like track history and current results into account.

The model is off to a strong start in NASCAR this year, calling Daytona 500 winner Denny Hamlin a top-four contender from the start. It nailed eight of the top 10 drivers in the Pennzoil 400, which included placing winner Joey Logano at its projected top five. It was all over Kyle Busch as a leading contender at the TicketGuardian 500 and four of the drivers in McClure’s top five went to top-five finishes at the Auto Club 400. Anybody who has followed its picks is way up.

McClure, with a mechanical engineering degree, grew up around race tracks. Big events in iconic places like Bristol Motor Speedway are in his bloodstream. His model simulated the 2019 Food City 500 10,000 times and the results were so surprising.

For Sundaywe can tell you the version is high on Kurt Busch, making a strong run at the checkered flag despite heading off as a long shot at 14-1 NASCAR in Bristol chances.

Busch is a six-time winner in Bristol Motor Speedway and his brother, Kyle Busch (seven), has more wins at this course among busy NASCAR drivers. That comes with a victory last August at the NASCAR at Bristol race because of his 30th career success in NASCAR’s top series.

The 40-year-old veteran and 2004 series champion fought his way to the front of the pack from the starting position in that race and has also previously come from the 27th and 13th starting positions to win at Bristol. He beat Larson by 0.367 seconds last time NASCAR visited Bristol and certainly will again start 27th on Sunday. He is off to a hot start this season too, finishing in the top 10 in all but two races. He finished second at the Clash at Daytona and third at Atlanta.

And a huge shocker: Ryan Blaney, one of the top Vegas favorites in 12-1, does not crack the top five. There are far better values compared to 12-1 premium he’s commanding.

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